Washington's Busiest Quarter: The Hidden Calendar of Lobbying

The Seasonal Pattern

Across eight years of lobbying data (2018–2025), a clear seasonal rhythm emerges. Both filings and income climb steadily from Q1 through Q4:

The gap between Q1 and Q4 is significant: 12% more income and 14% more filings. That's an extra $1 billion in lobbying activity that happens in the final three months of the year.

Why Q4 Is King

The October-December surge isn't a mystery — it's driven by three forces:

• The fiscal year starts October 1. Federal agencies begin their new budgets, and the appropriations process (or lack thereof) creates urgency. Continuing resolutions, omnibus bills, and government shutdown threats all drive lobbying spikes.
• The legislative year-end crunch. Congress typically tries to pass major legislation before adjourning in December. Tax bills, defense authorization, spending packages — they all pile up, and lobbyists work overtime to influence the final text.
• Lame-duck sessions. In election years, the period between November and January is especially frantic. Outgoing members are more receptive to lobbying, and industries rush to lock in favorable provisions before the new Congress arrives.

Year-by-Year: The Quarterly Rhythm

Notice the pattern: Q4 is the peak in 6 out of 8 years. The exceptions are 2020 (when COVID stimulus shifted activity to Q2/Q3) and 2023 (when Q1 was abnormally high due to debt ceiling negotiations).

Filing Activity: The Monthly Spikes

Looking at monthly filing data reveals an even sharper pattern. Lobbying disclosure filings are due within 45 days of the end of each quarter, creating massive filing spikes in January, April, July, and October. These deadline-driven spikes dwarf the surrounding months:

The spike months see 10–25x more filings than the off-months. This creates a rhythmic pulse in the lobbying disclosure system — quiet, quiet, flood, quiet, quiet, flood.

2025: A Record Year for Filings

2025 stands out as the highest-filing year in our dataset. Q3 and Q4 of 2025 each exceeded 25,000 filings — a new record. Total 2025 income reached approximately$5.96 billion, making it the second-highest year after the anomalous 2023.

The surge tracks with increased political uncertainty: a new administration, tariff policy, DOGE-driven spending cuts, and ongoing healthcare and technology regulatory battles all drove organizations to increase their lobbying presence.

What This Means for Transparency

The seasonal pattern matters because it affects when the public can see lobbying data. Filings are retrospective — they cover the previous quarter. So when lobbyists are most active (Q4, during year-end legislative pushes), the public won't see those disclosures until Q1 of the following year.

This delay means that by the time citizens can see who was lobbying for what, the legislation has often already passed. Real-time lobbying transparency remains elusive — and that's something Congress has shown little interest in fixing.